Could be sooner than 2012. Could be soon after. Tough to say. But it's coming. 2012 is both fun and funny but ultimately as much of a concern as your newspaper horoscope. So, when planning the Denver tourney I suggest keeping an eye on oil production and prices because once the shift occurs it could be a matter of days until we're all fucked (or living the sweet life training in Denver)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUmwy0VTnqM
We'll never run out of oil and hitting peak oil isn't as bad as it sounds. Economics (the invisible hand) will make sure that we never run out of oil.
Firstly, peak oil only means that we've reached a point where we won't be able to produce more oil than we do in a given year. Right now, we produce more than we consume, and that is why we have oil reserves. When we hit peak oil, we will be able to continue to produce plenty of oil for years to come.
Here's the economics part......as the amount of oil we consume gets closer and closer to the amount that we can produce, the price of oil will rise. This will result in us resorting to methods to get oil that are currently not very profitable (shale oil) and/or it being cheaper for us to use different kinds of energy. Eventually, we'll switch over to other forms of energy well before we run out of oil.
Well reasoned and appreciate the response, but I'd say that while the EARTH may never run out of oil, our ability to reach it is limited by time and the rate of technological development, etc. Yes, we are moving to other sources of energy but not at a rate sufficient to prevent catastrophe. In other words, the series of adjustments you're describing could most certainly occur, but I believe, based on my (admittedly limited) research, the decline will outpace the change. And we're not even getting into here petroleum products like plastics and shit out of which electric cars are built.
Also, the invisible hand idea requires a number of basic assumptions about human behavior that are, sadly, false - one of the many reasons economics cannot rationally be considered a natural science, but rather is a flawed invention of man that at its best can build nations and at its worst reverse engineer the rationale to ass fuck the poor (see: trickle down economics...)
i'll concede about the invisible hand, not because i think it's good science, but because it's too tiresome to debate something so complex in this forum. not to mention it's sort of like trying to debate the existence of god (especially when you consider the deification of the concept), santa claus, or astrology.
you're absolutely correct about fear mongering, and yeah, it's an effective, if immoral, tool used across the political spectrum. but your implicit accusation that it's motivating my sharing a video doesn't hold water when i haven't an agenda to push. that may have been unclear from my original post, which was meant to be in the light tone of the thread EB posted about 10th planet's end of the world contingency plan. so my apologies there. i wasn't trying to frighten the thousand people on this blog into.... i don't konw what. what am i supposedly fear mongering for? anyway rather than ponder that, i'll just explain my interest in this...
i find the universe fascinating, and studying its continuous change - whether on a anthropological, cultural, astronomical, geological, whatever level - through rational sources is, to me, a satisfying hobby. i'm not scared by peak oil, i'm interested by it.
i would say this about fear mongering though. there are, in fact, things in the world to be afraid of. those who don't want you to notice, be upset by, and react to these things throw around the mongering accusation to dismiss as a political tool what they may be incapable of facing. this is of course on a case to case basis and i am not at all suggesting you are doing that because i'm not the type to assume i know someone's position when he hasn't stated it. (and of course in other cases, as i suggested above the accusation is appropriate)
thanks for the responses :)
I am by no means an expert either, but it has been suggested by some that peak oil will wreak havoc on the world. And it may not be because we are peaked in oil, but because those who plan to sit on the oil and control the taps will make it a reality for the rest of us, to thin down the herd.