Finding EBI's exploit

I'll preface by saying that EBI is my favorite BJJ thing to watch. Great action, great jiu-jitsu. My question is whether Joe Soto exposed a kink in EBI, found an "exploit" so to speak. I mean. He was pretty much dominated by Geo and Joao for 10 minutes: meaning he was in disadvantageous positions through both matches. BUT he couldn't be tapped. In overtime, that first round he held onto both Geo and Joao instead of really going for a sub (from my arm-chair vantage point). After that, he secured the victory by escaping while Geo and Joao WENT FOR SUBS in the overtime, allowing Joe to escape faster.

I am afraid that now that BJJers saw this, it will harm the overtime rules by fighters making it a hugfest.

Any thoughts? Disagree? All the best.

I was thinking the exact same thing when I watched it, and it became much more obvious in second OT. He was much stronger than both of them so it played perfectly for him. I don't think it's an exploit tho as any of those guys could've caught him so a dangerous game to play.....it just worked this time in his favor

Yeah I'm not sure i agree it's an exploit. Geo and Miyao had 3 rounds to sub him or escape faster. They just need to sharpen that more.

If Geo Choked him the first round, than maybe Soto would've been thinking "ah i should've went for the kill".

Well you can do that shit all you want but you won't be getting paid for it....

I think it's a game plan a person could have for sure. You know you're giving up the money if you take that route though. And you take the risk of A: tiring yourself out (which I think somewhat happened to Soto by the time he got to the finals) and B: if you get subbed in any OT or before you lose. So I'm not sure it's all that great of a game plan or if it would pay off.

I don't think Soto really played that game though. His jits was pretty explosive and impressive as far as I saw. It was quite impressive to me to see an MMA guy have better back control than a Miyao brother. That's Miyao's game and Soto beat him at it. I wouldn't say that Miyao was going for subs in OT, he was just trying to control Soto and he couldn't.

If Miyao would have beat out Soto by being 15 seconds quicker, it's unlikely he would of tapped to Cummings leg locks as we have seen him with Tonon just not be subbed to legs. So then we see another OT and Miyao wins with a 0$ prize pool? Could have happened for sure and I still wouldn't argued Miyao tried to do that, it's just what happened and how his style matched up with the other guys.

But yes, I do think we will see some guys choose to just slow things down in OT if they get taken there. I don't think we will see many try to get there because of the money incentive, cardio etc. But if a match gets taken to OT then yes I think there will be guys who decide holding a person for more time is better than trying for a risky sub.

Maybe setting up a time limit for the first two OT rounds is a good idea to try and limit how much time OT can take up? Or make the first two rounds time not matter, then just the third round have it be time and sub? Then you have the first two rounds where you just want to try a submission and the last round where there is strategy.

As prize money continues to go up, this will be less of a issue.

I could see a lot of MMA fighters with good sub defense and good explosive escapes employing this strategy with a lot of effectiveness.

I don't think Soto was gaming the system. He almost tapped Geo with an Inverted Heel Hook at one point.

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Originally Posted by Ben Eddy

I think it's a game plan a person could have for sure. You know you're giving up the money if you take that route though. And you take the risk of A: tiring yourself out (which I think somewhat happened to Soto by the time he got to the finals) and B: if you get subbed in any OT or before you lose. So I'm not sure it's all that great of a game plan or if it would pay off.

I don't think Soto really played that game though. His jits was pretty explosive and impressive as far as I saw. It was quite impressive to me to see an MMA guy have better back control than a Miyao brother. That's Miyao's game and Soto beat him at it. I wouldn't say that Miyao was going for subs in OT, he was just trying to control Soto and he couldn't.

If Miyao would have beat out Soto by being 15 seconds quicker, it's unlikely he would of tapped to Cummings leg locks as we have seen him with Tonon just not be subbed to legs. So then we see another OT and Miyao wins with a 0$ prize pool? Could have happened for sure and I still wouldn't argued Miyao tried to do that, it's just what happened and how his style matched up with the other guys.

But yes, I do think we will see some guys choose to just slow things down in OT if they get taken there. I don't think we will see many try to get there because of the money incentive, cardio etc. But if a match gets taken to OT then yes I think there will be guys who decide holding a person for more time is better than trying for a risky sub.

Maybe setting up a time limit for the first two OT rounds is a good idea to try and limit how much time OT can take up? Or make the first two rounds time not matter, then just the third round have it be time and sub? Then you have the first two rounds where you just want to try a submission and the last round where there is strategy.

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I agree with this.

That's pretty much the only thing I could come up with. There seems to be risk when going for the submission in OT, as it can make it easier for the defensive person to escape and get a time advantage. Then in the next round that person (now offense) can further increase his time advantage through stalling, committing 100% to maintaining position and control.

What if the first 2 or 3 rounds had time limits and no escape time accumulation? This would take the risk of accumulative escape time off of the offensive person and because of the time limit, increase the urgency for submission. -Although this would mean the defensive person could try and stall till time ran out because escape would not be urgent.

Then if it got past these rounds it would go into one or two standard no time limit, timed escape rounds. And again the offensive person could stall, but at least for the first 2 or 3 rounds the person on offense would get to really go after the finish with out putting themselves at a disadvantage.

What if the first 2 or 3 rounds had time limits and no escape time accumulation? This would take the risk of accumulative escape time off of the offensive person and because of the time limit, increase the urgency for submission.

I like, I like. We won't find the perfect solution, but I think this feels very much "in the spirit" of EBI.

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Originally Posted by Jason Mallory

I don't think Soto was gaming the system. He almost tapped Geo with an Inverted Heel Hook at one point.

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Was that in regulation or in OT? I think the issue was that he was gaming the OT rounds. And I ain't mad at him. He already go zero money for reaching OT. So might as well game the rules to get to the next round.



Maybe another rule idea is that the escape timer doesn't start until there is an actual submission attempted. That way, a guy can't just hold onto seat belt control for a minute before attempting a sub. Also, the escape time would be true escape time, not just positional control time. And if the guy escapes before you attempt the sub, then it's a zero second escape time. I think that's fair.

Back control does require a bit of stabilization before you start attacking. So does spiderweb, truck, etc. Even when you're in position, the other guy already has an escape planned with the OT rules. When the bell rings, they're already squirming to get out. It would be silly to immediately go for the sub. You need a few moments to stabilize before you actually go for the sub. This can be an intentional way to game the rules or it can be incidental. So I feel like it makes more sense to start clocking the escape time once the sub is attempted and the clock stops either at the end of the OT round, or once the guy is officially out of danger.

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Originally Posted by Jack Hanley

I could see a lot of MMA fighters with good sub defense and good explosive escapes employing this strategy with a lot of effectiveness.

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This isn't that bad of a thing though. It's very impressive to see their explosive escapes, sub defense and also control. I enjoyed watching Soto be able to have better back control than Miyao, that was crazy to see for me at least. Geo got out really fast in the last couple rounds, he just got caught too long in the first one. That was really probably more of an urgency mistake on Geo's side rather than Soto's gameplan working as Geo controlled him better and escaped faster after that first round.

You gotta take into account that using this strategy is very risky, takes a lot of skill to be able to pull off and at the end of the event it won't get you paid. You risk your cardio, you risk losing to a sub at any point and you forfeit the prize money. I don't think it's much of a loophole. I think it's a mediocre strategy that we will probably see one or two people out of 16 try at each event.

Ultimately his strategy didn't work. He did get subbed.

The format could be played with a bit with things like having time limits for the first couple rounds. Actively using stall cards in OT and in regulation time (stall calls are the reason wrestling stays fast paced 24/7). But I think it is working just as it is now.

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Originally Posted by Ben Eddy

This isn't that bad of a thing though. It's very impressive to see their explosive escapes, sub defense and also control. I enjoyed watching Soto be able to have better back control than Miyao, that was crazy to see for me at least. Geo got out really fast in the last couple rounds, he just got caught too long in the first one. That was really probably more of an urgency mistake on Geo's side rather than Soto's gameplan working as Geo controlled him better and escaped faster after that first round.

You gotta take into account that using this strategy is very risky, takes a lot of skill to be able to pull off and at the end of the event it won't get you paid. You risk your cardio, you risk losing to a sub at any point and you forfeit the prize money. I don't think it's much of a loophole. I think it's a mediocre strategy that we will probably see one or two people out of 16 try at each event.

Ultimately his strategy didn't work. He did get subbed.

The format could be played with a bit with things like having time limits for the first couple rounds. Actively using stall cards in OT and in regulation time (stall calls are the reason wrestling stays fast paced 24/7). But I think it is working just as it is now.

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Again I agree.

Another idea, if stalling becomes a problem in OT, is to incentivize the OT submission with some money. It would be much less than a normal round submission. This would give the contestants something to think about. If there is no submission in OT, no money. If they get a submission in OT some money. This may get some more of the contestants to go for the tap. But if it's too much money then this may encourage contestants to stall the main rounds out in order to get into OT? This should be difficult though, because of the stall cards.

I think one thing to think about is how much money overrides the value of the "recognition of having won." Obviously, something like $1 million is worth more than that recognition of being EBI champ. But is $20,000? For some, they could cash-in on the EBI champ label without the $20,000 for far more than just $20,000 would. In other words, and I think I believe this, being EBI champ is worth more than $20,000. If competitors think this, then the incentive to win - even if by "gaming" the rules - is more than the short-term gains in cash.

The best thing about EBI is that Eddie is always looking for the best rules to keep the action going. If this is a problem in the future I'm sure the rules will be adjusted so that no one just hangs on in OT. And on the other hand Soto is a beast he made it to 5th round with TJ Dillashaw. He might just be an outliar in this situation.

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Originally Posted by Aiseop

I think one thing to think about is how much money overrides the value of the "recognition of having won." Obviously, something like $1 million is worth more than that recognition of being EBI champ. But is $20,000? For some, they could cash-in on the EBI champ label without the $20,000 for far more than just $20,000 would. In other words, and I think I believe this, being EBI champ is worth more than $20,000. If competitors think this, then the incentive to win - even if by "gaming" the rules - is more than the short-term gains in cash.

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Put it perfectly here. Recognition doesn't hold a T to a check for a million dollars. And the recognition aspect only goes so far when the guy who is running the tournament just so happens to be the ref. D'you think that same guy is going to want to bring back a $0 award winning champ? At least you could say that Eddie Cummings wiped the board clean with subs, though at this point it's almost like the mid-to-late 90's Bulls teams where Jordan was playing and you pretty much knew the outcome beforehand. I'd imagine though that at future tournaments there'd be greater interest in seeing sub specialists. At the 4 or 5 figure level, perhaps recognition is worth sacrificing a few g's to be crowned the EBi champ. You'd probably sell enough private lessons and seminars to make it up in a reasonable amount of time. But at the 7 figure level? You'd be outta your mind to not risk it.

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Originally Posted by Arman Fathi

And the recognition aspect only goes so far when the guy who is running the tournament just so happens to be the ref.

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How is this relevant? In regular time, you sub you win, the only call Eddie could make as far as I can tell that might affect the outcome is when the person trying to escape in OT has actually escaped.

What seems amazing to me is that we are talking about the potential for stalling or gaming in EBI. Compared to things like ADCC and IBJJF worlds there is dramatically less stalling, if it exists at all.

I've been watching the Budo Videos ADCC full replays from 2013 and there are TONS of guys who just won't engage. They want to stall until points start, and then find a way to scrape together 2-4 points, and beyond that, stay on their feet. It's gross, it's nearly unwatchable, and it must be extremely frustrating for anyone competing against them.

We are all very lucky to have something like EBI where, if there is any play like that, it's such a small issue that people will argue about whether or not it actually exists.


I was concerned about stalling after watching my heroes Geo and Miyao lose (and watching Geo accuse Soto of stalling at the end of their match). But when I watched it for the 2nd time, I didnt really see anything bad from Soto. He attacked plenty, and his opponents had plenty of opportunities to sub him.

Did Soto play position in OT? Yeah I think so, but if I was his coach I would have told him to do just that. OT is all about position control, or did I miss something when I read the rules? Most guys play position in OT don't they? You've already lost your money, the only thing you've got is to win at that point. Of course you control position for as long as possible. The only reason anyone should attempt a sub in OT is if their opponent, in trying to escape, offers them an opportunity.

EddieC subbed Soto in under 5 minutes. Was Soto tired? Yeah he looked like it. But he still looked 2nd class against Eddie.

The biggest thing I learned from EBI4 is that Cummings is an assassin.

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Originally Posted by Anthony Herrera

And on the other hand Soto is a beast he made it to 5th round with TJ Dillashaw. He might just be an outliar in this situation.

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That's what I was thinking. I don't think anyone will underestimate Soto's ground game in MMA

Like I said, (I guess no one read) a smart grappler will want to settle their position before going for a sub. Just because you're in a dead zone doesn't mean it's smart to immediately go for the sub. Your opponent is primed and ready to escape. So you want to hold and control the position before going for your sub. So maybe Soto wasn't intentionally stalling. He was just settling the position before he went for the sub. Makes sense. And that's why I say, escape time should start once the actual sub is attempted.

I enjoyed reading all the commentaries. Soto is definitely an outlier so props to him. And perhaps there's no need for EBI to be reactionary and do anything just, yet. BTW, anyone know what weight class is competing at EBI 5? Can we get love for the big guys? lol

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Originally Posted by Jack Hanley

I could see a lot of MMA fighters with good sub defense and good explosive escapes employing this strategy with a lot of effectiveness.

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Originally Posted by Ben Eddy

This isn't that bad of a thing though.

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100% agree. I have always said that possibly the majority of the guys who would have been the best pure no-gi guys ended up in MMA instead due to the money. Think about all the NCAA D1 champions who ended up doing excellently in MMA. They would have ruled ass in no-gi if they had ever had an incentive to focus on it. This has always hurt the pool of pure no-gi guys. A huge amount of the best guys just end up in MMA where they can make dollards.

Jack Hanley going Freakonomics on us. Nice.

Bravo must have nearly exploded with happiness after Cummings won and saved him from people asking this question relentlessly

Exploded from Cummings? Sounds about right.

Lol

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Originally Posted by Aiseop

I enjoyed reading all the commentaries. Soto is definitely an outlier so props to him. And perhaps there's no need for EBI to be reactionary and do anything just, yet. BTW, anyone know what weight class is competing at EBI 5? Can we get love for the big guys? lol

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205ers

Sweet. Time to speculate dream match-ups for EBI. Add more that you don't see on the list below.

Here's the list of the ADCC -99kg (-218lbs, the closest weight class to 205)

Male -99 kg
1. Joao Assis - Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Tomasz Narkun - Poland (1st European Trials Winner)
3. Kamil Uminski - Poland (2nd European Trials Winner)
4. Tobias Green - Australia (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
5. Yukiyasu Ozawa - Japan (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
6. Tom DeBlass - USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
7. Jason Bukich - USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
8. Roberto Alencar - Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
9. Cassio Francis Da Silva - Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
10. Alexandre Ribeiro - Brazil (Invited)
11. Hector Lombard - USA (Invited)
12. Felipe Pena - Brazil (Invited)
13. Rodolfo Vieira - Brazil (Invited)
14. Jimmy Friedrich - USA (Invited)
15. Adam Sachnoff - USA (Invited)
16. Lukasz Michalec - Poland (Invited)

Don't count out the 88 kg guys either.

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Originally Posted by Aiseop

Sweet. Time to speculate dream match-ups for EBI. Add more that you don't see on the list below.

Here's the list of the ADCC -99kg (-218lbs, the closest weight class to 205)

Male -99 kg
1. Joao Assis - Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Tomasz Narkun - Poland (1st European Trials Winner)
3. Kamil Uminski - Poland (2nd European Trials Winner)
4. Tobias Green - Australia (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
5. Yukiyasu Ozawa - Japan (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
6. Tom DeBlass - USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
7. Jason Bukich - USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
8. Roberto Alencar - Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
9. Cassio Francis Da Silva - Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
10. Alexandre Ribeiro - Brazil (Invited)
11. Hector Lombard - USA (Invited)
12. Felipe Pena - Brazil (Invited)
13. Rodolfo Vieira - Brazil (Invited)
14. Jimmy Friedrich - USA (Invited)
15. Adam Sachnoff - USA (Invited)
16. Lukasz Michalec - Poland (Invited)

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Damn, with the success of the last 4 EBI's, I think that Eddie can get a good deal of those guys to come out to play. Would absolutely love to watch Felipe Pena in EBI rules.

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Originally Posted by Pat Campagnola

Don't count out the 88 kg guys either.

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Yup. True. Someone like Yuri Simoes is easily at the 205.

As good as Soto is, was or could be, there is no question that he was stalling for time in overtime.

Maybe cancel overtime all together, make it ten min money round, if you don't sub in the money round then an unlimited time OT, bring back the hour long battle?

if you get someone's back 3 times with both leg hooks and the over/under and they escape all 3 times, then it's time to sharpen up your attacks from the back, not lobby to change the rules. If Marcelo or Rafa had anyone on the planet's back 3 times he would 10000% finish at least 1 of them, most likely all 3, especially since it's in his opponent's best interest to escape as fast as possible. Look at Tonon vs Karen and Tonon vs Hinger, both matches ended in OT and both ended in submissions.

When preparing for EBI, you must spend ALOT of time polishing your back and spider web strategies AND your back and spider web escapes. THIS IS HUGE.

Remember, all you need to do is finish your opponent one out of 3 times and all that stalling/gaming goes out the door, ONE OUT OF 3 BACK TAKES! :-)