I watched all the No-gi Rader vids online right after this also trying to figure this out. I agaree his weakness is DLR/ spriral. His leg lock defense is real good so those are long shots. His posture is too strong to just pull closed guard. Unless you just prepare awsome cardio and posture breaking to the next level above him, It is also a long shot.
my 2 cents for a sub only no points match.
Spend 1% time on top than Rader does, Denny wins.
Wrestler with him more, never pull guard. Force Rader to spend the energy to take you down. Stuffed takedowns burn tons of energy. If you take him down and land on top you win. If he takes you down, escape,stand and wrestle. Do not let him engage your open guard if you can't stand up, go spiral as soon as he comes in, he will swamp walk out and give you space to stand up right away. This takes the pressure off and gives you a breather. I think on the 6 or 7th takedown Rader makes an error and either leaves his neck exposed for 10 finger or darce or gets swept during the take down and Denny ends on top and wears Rader down and begins to turn the tide. I look at a match as total energy spend is always equal to 100%. Standing you are at 50% per opponent. A person attempting a takedown jumps to 60% while the person defending is spending 40%. For every one you stuff you gain ground. Everytime you get taken down it swaps to 40%-60% the other way. Net result is even. Defend three, get taken down once you are ahead. When Rader is pressure passing he shifts the scale in his favor to like 30%-70%. Once passed Denny's guard it looked more like 40%-60%, Denny was pretty cool underneath. Huge amounts of energy were spent defending the pressure passing and Rader still passed almost everytime anyway. A sprial attempt ,swamp walk defense is about 50%-50%. Cobrinha does not get worn down, he sits, sprials, sits, spiral. His Spiral/DLR is master level and he knows he will hit it eventually. Unless you have that level of sprial, not likely to happen. Just use that time after the swampwalk to stand up. Cobrinha was also worried about takedown points that is why he just sits. I did not do the numbers real close but it looked to me that of the total 11.1 minutes of the match. They spent 3 standing or neutral, 6 rader pressure passing, 2.1 Rader in side control or mount. The goal for victory for same 11.1 minutes looks more like 5 standing or neutral, 3 Rader in top side or mount, 3.1 Denny on top side or mount. I think Denny could win if it were 6 minutes standing or Nuetral, 1 minute Rader pressure passing, 3 Rader on top side or mount, 1.1 minute Denny on top.
my 2 cents for a sub only no points match.
Spend 1% time on top than Rader does, Denny wins.
Wrestler with him more, never pull guard. Force Rader to spend the energy to take you down. Stuffed takedowns burn tons of energy. If you take him down and land on top you win. If he takes you down, escape,stand and wrestle. Do not let him engage your open guard if you can't stand up, go spiral as soon as he comes in, he will swamp walk out and give you space to stand up right away. This takes the pressure off and gives you a breather. I think on the 6 or 7th takedown Rader makes an error and either leaves his neck exposed for 10 finger or darce or gets swept during the take down and Denny ends on top and wears Rader down and begins to turn the tide. I look at a match as total energy spend is always equal to 100%. Standing you are at 50% per opponent. A person attempting a takedown jumps to 60% while the person defending is spending 40%. For every one you stuff you gain ground. Everytime you get taken down it swaps to 40%-60% the other way. Net result is even. Defend three, get taken down once you are ahead. When Rader is pressure passing he shifts the scale in his favor to like 30%-70%. Once passed Denny's guard it looked more like 40%-60%, Denny was pretty cool underneath. Huge amounts of energy were spent defending the pressure passing and Rader still passed almost everytime anyway. A sprial attempt ,swamp walk defense is about 50%-50%. Cobrinha does not get worn down, he sits, sprials, sits, spiral. His Spiral/DLR is master level and he knows he will hit it eventually. Unless you have that level of sprial, not likely to happen. Just use that time after the swampwalk to stand up. Cobrinha was also worried about takedown points that is why he just sits. I did not do the numbers real close but it looked to me that of the total 11.1 minutes of the match. They spent 3 standing or neutral, 6 rader pressure passing, 2.1 Rader in side control or mount. The goal for victory for same 11.1 minutes looks more like 5 standing or neutral, 3 Rader in top side or mount, 3.1 Denny on top side or mount. I think Denny could win if it were 6 minutes standing or Nuetral, 1 minute Rader pressure passing, 3 Rader on top side or mount, 1.1 minute Denny on top.