
Originally Posted by
Joshua Jarboe
I believe that. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if no-gi matches went to points less than gi in general. It's so fast.
That's interesting. My gut instinct is that they'd probably even out. The best way I guess would be to take a few events and compare. Pick some divisions at black belt from the gi and no-gi worlds, IBJJF, because they have the same rules. I almost think you'd have to use the IBJJF as an example, because organizations like ADCC have half of the match no points, so that changes strategy and would throw off the data.
A couple variables come to mind, but there's no way to prove them.
No-gi is faster and there's more movement, but it's also harder to control, and due to the lack of grips and sweat I tend to think it can be harder to finish submissions in no-gi, and they require a bit more precision. Especially armlocks.
The gi technically has more options to finish, because even though they're harder to do, you can do all nogi style chokes in the gi, on top of all the various collar chokes. But then again the heel hook is always in the top 3 most common subs in any tournament it's allowed, like ADCC. So I wonder if the inclusion of heel hooks would balance out all the collar choke options.
The randomness factor. I've seen brackets where there's a sub damn near every match, and others the next year with almost the same group of people, and there's 1 or 2 subs. It's just really hard to know.
I just did a quick Metamoris comparison just do to it. In 24 matches (13 gi and 11 no-gi), they've had 9 submissions. 38% finishing rate. I have some ideas on how Metamoris can get more submissions but that's another story. They've had 4 submissions in the gi, and 5 in no-gi. Even then, the 2nd Metamoris kind of fucks things up because they had judges, which I think made less incentive to fight for the finish.