Replying to the OP, the reason is that Shogun got choked out by forest, barely beat Coleman, KO'ed Chuck, lost to machida, then knocked machida out. Now he did look good taking out machida, when he lost to him they both did not look like very damaging fighters, chuck fight I can't comment on and he flat out sucked wind thru his butthole in forest and coleman fights. Reason? Everybody say he blew his knee so thats why. Well, he blew his knee again and it is not a long shot to expect a bad performance from him. There has been no negatives or weaknesses shown by Jones so far. However until he gets exposed he has every right to ride the same train that Machida did. Also although I have never personally seen, rolled or armwresled Ryan Bader, per Joe Rogan he is one of the strongest 205'ers out there and he got man handled by Jon Jones. So would give strength, condition, reach, athleticism, take downs and wrestling advantages to Jones, submissions and technical striking to Rua. Rua maybe with a knee-bar from no-where or a solid knee to the chin from the clinch. Except punchers chances I give the rest of the possibilities to Jones to win.