First of all, I believe Jon Jones to have more potential than probably any other prospect in MMA. He might even beat Shogun. That being said, am I the only one that still sees him as that - a prospect? Here's a few reasons why I think the hype train, though it may be right, is way too far in overdrive.
Dire Straights: I think this matters a lot, especially in regards to odds making. We have never seen Jones injured, in bad position, or down points. Fighters learn a lot about themselves and what works when they lose, and especially when they get cracked. Many top prospects have gone the way of the dodo after eating a few hard shots and realizing they can't take it. Maybe Jones can brutalize Shogun, but he will likely eat some power shots before he does. Who knows if he can shake off 15 of Rua's leg kicks and a few flurries. If he can, we have a new P4P contender. But until then, I don't see how this guy can be going off at as much as -210/+170! I'm hoping to make a ton off of this fight.
Fight length: Jones has not reached the 3rd round in over 2 years. He looks like he can go for 10 hours, but we won't know until we see it.
Experience: Jones has 13 fights, 7 in anything approaching a serious organization. Shogun has 23 fights, 18 in PRIDE or UFC. He has seen in that time way more different styles, body types, speeds, etc., and he should be able to compensate based on past obstacles.
Opposition: Jones has looked amazing in every fight, but against who? How do you think Shogun, or any top-5 fighter at LHW, would look against this list of Jones' entire UFC career? Gusmao, Bonnar, O'Brien, Hamill, Vera, Matushenko, Bader. The fact is, Bader is the only top-10 he has ever faced, and was most definitely not yet top-5. How can we know whether he is really amazing, or just amazing at making 2nd-tier fighters look terrible? Tito did the same thing for a long time...until he fought Liddell. Marquardt seems to obliterate 2nd tier fighters, but fails more often than not against the top tier. On the other hand, Shogun has faced nothing but top opponents since April of 2005, and he has faced 14 people since then. Not to mention he won the PRIDE Grand Prix, which is insane.
I've been writing MMA articles for a bit, don't know why I have not posted them on here. What do you all think, is this worth a write-up?
Dire Straights: I think this matters a lot, especially in regards to odds making. We have never seen Jones injured, in bad position, or down points. Fighters learn a lot about themselves and what works when they lose, and especially when they get cracked. Many top prospects have gone the way of the dodo after eating a few hard shots and realizing they can't take it. Maybe Jones can brutalize Shogun, but he will likely eat some power shots before he does. Who knows if he can shake off 15 of Rua's leg kicks and a few flurries. If he can, we have a new P4P contender. But until then, I don't see how this guy can be going off at as much as -210/+170! I'm hoping to make a ton off of this fight.
Fight length: Jones has not reached the 3rd round in over 2 years. He looks like he can go for 10 hours, but we won't know until we see it.
Experience: Jones has 13 fights, 7 in anything approaching a serious organization. Shogun has 23 fights, 18 in PRIDE or UFC. He has seen in that time way more different styles, body types, speeds, etc., and he should be able to compensate based on past obstacles.
Opposition: Jones has looked amazing in every fight, but against who? How do you think Shogun, or any top-5 fighter at LHW, would look against this list of Jones' entire UFC career? Gusmao, Bonnar, O'Brien, Hamill, Vera, Matushenko, Bader. The fact is, Bader is the only top-10 he has ever faced, and was most definitely not yet top-5. How can we know whether he is really amazing, or just amazing at making 2nd-tier fighters look terrible? Tito did the same thing for a long time...until he fought Liddell. Marquardt seems to obliterate 2nd tier fighters, but fails more often than not against the top tier. On the other hand, Shogun has faced nothing but top opponents since April of 2005, and he has faced 14 people since then. Not to mention he won the PRIDE Grand Prix, which is insane.
I've been writing MMA articles for a bit, don't know why I have not posted them on here. What do you all think, is this worth a write-up?
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