Common Opponents
Diego Sanchez (Penn won by TKO, Fitch won by decision)
Notable things from these fights. In Sanchez vs Fitch - Diego even though the smaller man got a couple of takedowns on Fitch. Fitch tends to throw sloppy punches and kicks leaving him vulnerable. Diego was able to advance on the bottom and get into some advantageous positions (armbar attempts, guillutines, etc.) a few times.
When BJ fought Sanchez, he was clearly the faster and better striker. Penn had displayed remarkable TDD and ended the bought with a TKO.
George St. Pierre (Penn loss by TKO, Fitch loss by decision)
Notable things from this fights. Penn displayed fatigue and cardio issues against a large WW like GSP. The 1st round of this bought was even in quickness and strikes similar to GSP vs BJ 1.
Fitch showed he was the slower fighter and got tagged over and over again by GSP. Fitch showed he has a very strong chin.
BJJ
Jon Fitch is a Guerilla Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt under AKA trainer, Dave Camarillo.
Bj won the Gold Metal for black belt Mundial World Championships in 2000 trained under Ralph Gracie.
Bj continues to train with high level BJJ practictioners from accross the globe. Penn can fight from the bottom
and employ sweeps and put his opponents in tough BJJ predicaments.
Advantage Penn
Wrestling
Fitch is Division I wrestler at Purdue University. Fitch is most well known to have great
grappling control in the cage. Fitch has a notable size advantage over Penn.
Penn is no slouch in grappling. He is great top control once it gets there but Penn has never had good
wrestling at WW. mostly looked impressive at LW
Advantage Fitch
TDD
Althought BJ has shown excellent TDD in the past, his most recent fights with
Edgar showed that he is vunerable to a quick TD if executed right.
Fitch is a pure bred wrestler and will dictate whether this stays standing or goes to the ground.
Slight Advantage Fitch
Striking
BJ can strike with the best of them. Many of his wins were knockouts or setup by a hard strike followed by a finishing
submission. He was able to stand toe to toe with Lyoto Machida and outstuck GSP in their first matchup. Penn is a power striker
so he is able to get outpointed by a faster boxer like Edgar.
Fitch is no slouch either in striking. He was able to strike with Thiago Alves. He trains with the American Kickboxing
Academy.
Advantage Penn
Cardio
Fitch has excellent cardio. Many of his fights go to decision where he still looks impressive after three, 5 minute rounds
BJ Penn has not had any issues with cardio recently at LW but
there is still a big question how his cardio will transition to WW. His fight with Matt Hughes proved nothing
for cardio aspects.
Advantage Fitch.
Chin
Both Penn and Fitch are known to have legendary chins. Fitch was rocked badly by Mike Pierce and GSP. Penn was getting pummelled by 1000 shots by Matt Hughes 2 and GSP 2 fights but still was concious.
Slight Advantage Penn
On paper it's a pretty even macth up but on paper i would have to give the slight advantage to Fitch. However, for every round the fight starts
standing. Fitch will have a difficult time trying to figure out how to avoid a barrage of power punches from Penn while
trying to take Penn down. And even when Penn is down, Fitch will have to keep Penn down and avoid vicious submission attempts and
BJJ sweeps. Penn's 21 second KO of Matt Hughes shows that Penn's power transitions well into WW. Penn will be the quicker fighter and should be able to maintain this into round 2 and the beggining of the 3rd round.
I believe Penn has learned from his GSP loss to negate some of the takedowns and top control of dominant wrestlers which is why he brought in Matt Hughes to train with him.
Fitch's standup has improved a little each time but his speed is still the same. Fitch will be too slow for a fresh BJ. Time and time again Fitch is able to avoid submissions but get in bad position and BJJ predicaments. It's like playing a game of chance. sooner or later, Fitch will have to deal with a perfectly executed choke/bar. With the BJJ position Fitch gives up, Penn is more viable to use BJJ techniques for sweeps or to get back up and give Fitch trouble on the feet.
If this was a 5 round fight, I would say Fitch 60% Penn 40% by decision. However this is a 3 round fight. Penn should have enough cardio to employ a vicious standing and ground assault on Fitch. If Fitch gets it to the ground and gets swept just one time or if Penn is able to catch a sloppy kick from Fitch, it will be enough for Penn to finish Fitch from the top. Remember Penn's top control on many of his past opponents (besides Edgar). All it takes is a few moments for Penn to finish from the top with strikes or BJJ or a combination of both.
In conclusion, I am picking BJ to win by TKO or by decision. Please bring this back up after the results.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by JBOY
