ADCC 2017 Total Submissions

[Jack Hanley]

Hey Guys,

It's been a second.

Since at least 2011, I've tried to keep track of what subs have been trending at ADCC.

Here you can find links to the threads with my 2011, 2013, and 2015 numbers: http://www.10thplanetjj.com/threads/...al-Submissions

Here are my numbers for the 2017 Elimination Round:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

According to my draft numbers, the Elimination Round saw a 25% submission rate. Working on the Quarters Now.

Let me know what mistakes you see.

Thanks,
Jack from The Salt Lake Grappling Club and The Whiskey & Chokes Podcast

[Jack Hanley]

Here are the previous years numbers for direct comparison as we go along:

Breakdown for Both Days of ADCC 2015:
Leg Attacks: 9 total (6 heelhooks, 2 kneebars, and 1 toe hold)
Full Body Attacks: 1 total( 1 Twister)
Upper Body Attacks: 18 total (6 RNC, 4 Armbar including 1 triangle armbar and 1 crucifix armbar with legs, 2 Kimura , 2 Triangle--including 1 no arm, 1 reverse, 1 Pressing Armlock, 1 Arm Triangle, 1 Omoplata, and 1 D'Arce)
Non-Subs: 48 total (34 Points and 14 Judge’s Decision)
http://www.10thplanetjj.com/threads/...al-Submissions

Breakdown for Both Days of ADCC 2013:
Leg Attack Finishes: 15 total (8 heelhooks, 2 kneebars, 3 toehold, and 2 straight ankles)
Upper Body Finishes: 26 total (9 RNC, 5 armbar, 2 kimura, 5 guillotine, 3 triangle, and 2 Darce)
http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ad...sions.2586137/

Breakdown for Both Days of ADCC 2011:
52 wins by pts
17 total leg attack Finishes
24 total Upper Body Finishes (8 armbar, 6 guillotine, 5 RNC, 4 triangle, 1 D’Arce)
2 wins by judges decision
1 win by DQ
http://forum.mixedmartialarts.com/mm...1881333&page=1

[Mike Nall]

BTW you missed an outside heel hook from game over position by Keenan against Kaynan in the 88kg, as well as an armbar from the back by Cobrinha in his quarter finals match. Also Ethan Crelenstin got a kimura from the reverse triangle position in his first match in the 66kg. And an armbar from closed guard by Xande on Rustam in 88kg

What I found very interesting about this year so far is this is the least subs I've ever seen at ADCC in the opening round, and I have been watching since 2001. Usually the top seeds finish off a lot of the trials winners really fast and that wasn't the case today. In general the level of submission defense skill seems much higher than it was even 5 years ago. Oh yeah and Craig Jones' RNC on Leandro Lo and his flying triangle on Murilo Santana in 88kg.

Xande was interesting. 2 armbars from closed guard? I can't remember the last time I saw one armbar from closed guard in no-gi. There were some very close arm triangles, guillotines, and darces that didn't get the finish. Geo almost hit a twister. A couple close RNCs and armbars that didn't finish. Again, the level of sub defense has really gone up a lot the past few years.

[Mike Nall]

I mentioned sub defense skill going up and I wonder if EBI has anything to do with that. I think it might. If people are spending more time training with people on their back and in other dead zones like the spider web, the vice grip, the truck, etc, then it would make sense that people are improving their defensive skills. I've especially noticed a need for more intricate hand fighting sequences to finish the RNC. Galvao, Keenan, and Lovato all struggled to finish RNCs and arm triangles and they are all great with those. A lot of people today were threatened with guillotines, darces, and Japanese neckties but I only saw one of those completed. I saw a lot of good armbar defense was on display too. Joao Miyao is a killer with armbars and struggled to finish with it in his first match.

People are catching up on leg defense as well. I only saw 2 heel hooks today and usually there are a good handful on the first ADCC day.

[Mike Nall]

BTW you missed

- Craig Jones' RNC on Leandro Lo and his flying triangle on Murilo Santana in 88kg.
- an armbar from closed guard by Xande on Rustam in 88kg
- an outside heel hook from game over position by Keenan against Kaynan in the 88kg
- an armbar from the back by Cobrinha in his quarter finals match in 66kg.
- Ethan Crelenstin got a kimura from the reverse triangle position in his first match in the 66kg.

[Jack Hanley]

Thanks for your responses, Mike.

Those numbers don't cover the quarters yet.

I totally agree regarding the astounding sub defense by the Elimination Round losers. I think the standard of competition is just getting much higher as the sport gets bigger, and we are getting first round matches where the margin between winner and loser is much smaller on average than in many past editions.

[Jack Hanley]

Jones is basically propelling himself into that top of the top world class class competitor strata right before our eyes.

Amazing dark horse performance so far! Crazier even than Dopp's first appearance at ADCC.

[Jack Hanley]

Here's a thought that strikes me as I go through the quarter finals:

Am I going to show the average ADCC match to a friend to convince them our sport is awesome. I hate to admit the answer is “no”. I would use EBI for that. While some ADCC matches are epic...many are not excellent viewing material for non-grapplers. So, why do I still love ADCC? The over simplification is the oft-cited caliber of the athletes in ADCC. But, there’s more than that. If I want to see cutting edge state-of-the-art technique selection in our sport for any given position, I turn to ADCC. Why? Because it produces a certain type of useful information. Here’s what I mean. If you’re going to think about what actually works in full rules no-gi submission grappling...you need hard data. You can’t rely on what people say works. Some guys trying to say what works have never actually competed. Some haven’t competed in the current competitive era. Some actually have competed but will try to teach you things that actually don’t work because they have never really devoted any mental power to parsing their actual high level competition game versus the game they use in the gym on much lesser grapplers. They basically don’t realize which parts of their games are actually useful in competition as compared to all the stuff they constantly try in competition that doesn’t actually work.

For those and other reasons, we can’t rely on what people might tell us. We need data if we’re going to talk about what actually works in this sport. In that respect, ADCC is like a scientist’s laboratory ready and willing to yield up the necessary data. You have all the best guys in the world set upon each other in real high level competition and they are going to show you with their actions (not their incredibly unreliable words) what happens in thousands of different positions and micropositions given a thousand different variables like speed, strength, experience, exhuastion, endurance, and etc. when winning or losing that position or microposition really matters due to the one or two point margins that often determine matches. In ADCC, if you get passed, the points awarded might be the whole match. So, in ADCC we get to see what happens when the top guys really care about winning or losing each position. We get to see the relative success rate of all the different techniques they might choose in each position. At the end of the day, ADCC is excellent for exposing what REALLY happens when the best guys in the world want to win positions in full no-gi submission grappling and they risk a potentially match determining point accumulation by the opponent anytime they lose a position.

A totally separate topic, not addressed here, is how EBI regulation rounds expose a completely different type of useful information regarding what techniques really good guys choose when all they care about is finishing their opponent.

(Note: the qualifer “full”, as used herein, is meant to distinguish ADCC and EBI style rule sets that allow the full spectrum of lower body attacks from other “limited” rule sets, such as the IBJJF no-gi rule set, which effectually neuters much of the spectrum of lower body attacks).

[Jack Hanley]

Okay the quarters are now updated in the spreadsheet. Amazingly, the submission % went UP slightly in the quarters (mainly because the -88kg competitors are such god damn savages).

[Mike Nall]

For day 2 I have seen

Gordon mounted arm-in guillotine choke on Keenan in 88
Dillon Danis darce choke in absolute
Gordon Ryan inverted heel hook in absolute
Gordon Ryan arm triangle from mount in absolute
Craig Jones outside heel hook in absolute
Gordon Ryan with a heel hook on Aly in the absolute (I didn't see if it was outside or inside heel hook)
Pena RNC on Buchecha in the absolute

More to come as I see them

I'll reply to your posts later just wanted to help with the sub count