Originally Posted by
Matt Skaff
I agree with you Mike. I think Galvao is the favorite with cyborg right behind him. What do you think the chances are that eddie or garry make it to the finals?
Man. I gotta be careful how I say this because I'm a huge huge fan of both of them. I don't think the chances are that high. The bracket may shake out some more but right now it mostly seems like a medium heavyweight and up tournament with a few smaller guys thrown in. The Tonon and Magalhaes match at adcc was fun, and so was Cummings and Tanquinho, but I could see a lot of matches playing out like that for them. I mean there are 5 adcc gold medalists in this bracket (including 3 absolute gold winners) and none of them were smaller than 88kg (Galvao and Yuri). Cummings is a smaller guy and has been a black belt for a little over a year? I just don't know if he has the experience yet, but damn I can't wait to see what happens if he gets on some legs. His precision is unmatched.
Tonon is harder to predict because his style is more random, but I think his best shot against a Cyborg or Galvao for example is the OT. His RNC is so killer and if he could somehow land one and manage to escape on the next go, he could walk away with it. I still think he's a young guy and has some experience left to go to be on the level of those uber elite guys. Lucas Lepri gave him a hell of a time at adcc and these guys are more on that Lepri level but are also larger men. We'll see. You can never count Tonon out and he's got a huge heart and is very tough and technical.
My gut doesn't think Lister will go that far. Just a feeling. He hasn't won a match since 2013 and I think he has a lot of injuries built up. I think Cyborg will go far, but I think Galvao is a terrible match for him and I know Cyborg had some cardio/heart issues before their adcc superfight, but Cyborg honestly had nothing for him. I think Galvao's style is tailor made for the OT (back and spider web) and he's big enough to not pressure the big guys and small enough to move with the small guys. He's the pound for pound best active no-gi athlete for a reason, but I think the dark horse here is Yuri. Even with adcc gold I think Yuri will be slept on until the event starts. His resume is better than people realize and his skill set is too.
Vinny as well. Vinny especially has a style where he could finish some matches super fast and be well rested for the deep rounds. Galvao has a win over him but it was 5 years ago and it wasn't by sub. So that could be a fun rematch also. Vinny could honestly submit everyone for the 50k and I wouldn't be surprised at all.
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